Category Archives: Complexity

HealthCare.gov – technology, complexity and politics

The headlines and political repercussions from the HealthCare.gov debacle continue unabated. The focus is unsurprising, given the polarizing debate that proceeded the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). As this is a technology management blog,… Read more

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Accidents, Errors and Swiss Cheese

On Saturday, Asiana Airlines flight 214, a Boeing 777, crashed upon landing at San Francisco Airport. Through a combination of luck and robust aircraft design, only 2 people were killed; a surprising outcome given the photos of the wreckage…. Read more

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Hail to the Chief! – Leadership Attribution Bias

The American football season has kicked off, the Presidential race for 2012 is in motion, and corporate earnings season is right around the corner.  What do these three disparate events have in common?  They all lead to the human propensity to… Read more

Posted in Cognitive Bias, Complexity, General Management, Organization, Psychology | Tagged , , , | 12 Comments

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is – The Folly of Expert Prediction

With the start of the American football season, pundits everywhere are stepping forward, declaring their predictions for the coming season.  They are blogging and appearing on talk shows with confident pre-season power rankings, team-by-team… Read more

Posted in Complexity, General Management, Organization, Probability/Statistics | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

When Do Predictions Make Sense?

The great sage Yogi Berra is rumored to have said “Predictions are tough, especially about the future.”  As with many of his quotes, it resonates with us, by being both silly and profound at the same time.  Predicting the future is a notoriously… Read more

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